# SniperStack — COD Operating Manual (North Africa)

Cash-on-delivery e-commerce intelligence for DZ, MA, TN, EG.
Version 2026.2, updated 2026-06. Human-readable version: https://sniperstack.com/market-research

## Meta

- **Version:** 2026.2
- **Updated:** 2026-06
### Countries

- DZ
- MA
- TN
- EG

### Sources

- Meta Ads Library
- TikTok Creative Center
- Agency Consensus Data
- Internal Courier Delivery Reports

### Epistemic legend

- **Proven:** Repeatable and mechanism-backed. Apply by default.
- **Benchmark:** Typical range. Directional — shifts with account, season and competition.
- **Test:** No universal answer. A/B test this per product and account.


## Countries

### DZ

- **Flag:** 🇩🇿
- **Name:** Algeria
- **Fb reach:** 27.5M
- **Cpm:** $1.50–3.00
- **Cpc:** $0.10–0.20
- **Cpl:** $0.60–1.50
- **Cod share:** 95%+
- **Aov:** 2,500–4,000 DZD
- **Rto verified:** 10–20%
- **Mobile:** 92%
- **Market:** $1.72B
- **Delivery urban:** 1–2 days
- **Delivery rural:** 3–10 days

### MA

- **Flag:** 🇲🇦
- **Name:** Morocco
- **Fb reach:** 22.8M
- **Cpm:** $3.00–5.50
- **Cpc:** $1.50–4.00
- **Cpl:** $1.00–2.50
- **Cod share:** 55–85%
- **Aov:** 200–400 MAD
- **Rto verified:** 15–25%
- **Mobile:** 78%
- **Market:** $1.66B
- **Delivery urban:** 1–2 days
- **Delivery rural:** 5–7 days

### TN

- **Flag:** 🇹🇳
- **Name:** Tunisia
- **Fb reach:** 7.80M
- **Cpm:** $2.00–3.50
- **Cpc:** $0.12–0.30
- **Cpl:** $0.80–2.00
- **Cod share:** 90%+
- **Aov:** 45–85 TND
- **Rto verified:** 12–18%
- **Mobile:** 90%
- **Market:** $215M
- **Delivery urban:** 1–2 days
- **Delivery rural:** 2–4 days

### EG

- **Flag:** 🇪🇬
- **Name:** Egypt
- **Fb reach:** 51.6M
- **Cpm:** $0.80–1.80
- **Cpc:** $1.80–4.50
- **Cpl:** $0.40–1.00
- **Cod share:** 70–80%
- **Aov:** 400–900 EGP
- **Rto verified:** 15–25%
- **Mobile:** 85%
- **Market:** $10.39B
- **Delivery urban:** 1–2 days
- **Delivery rural:** 3–7 days


## Psychology

### DZ

- **Flag:** 🇩🇿
- **Name:** Algeria
- **Trust:** 5
- **Price sensitivity:** 4
- **Brand openness:** 2
### Loves

- Real people / UGC
- Community proof
- Simple, transparent offers
- Darija (Darja)

### Avoid

- Luxury branding
- Corporate / studio polish
- French-only mass-market copy

- **Note:** Cheapest reach in the region but hardest to convert leads into delivered sales. Win on demonstration + sizing clarity, not aesthetics.

### MA

- **Flag:** 🇲🇦
- **Name:** Morocco
- **Trust:** 3
- **Price sensitivity:** 3
- **Brand openness:** 4
### Loves

- Higher aesthetics
- Fashion-forward visuals
- Darija over French
- Instagram lifestyle framing

### Avoid

- French-only copy (limits mass market)
- Generic commodity positioning

- **Note:** Most mature & competitive market. Higher willingness to try brands; highest CPMs. Aesthetic quality matters more here than elsewhere.

### TN

- **Flag:** 🇹🇳
- **Name:** Tunisia
- **Trust:** 3
- **Price sensitivity:** 3
- **Brand openness:** 3
### Loves

- Bilingual Arabic + French
- Short punchy video (15–30s)
- “Open on delivery” trust

### Avoid

- Static French-only ads
- Over-promising

- **Note:** Smallest market, strict FX rules limit cross-border. Buyers naturally mix French + Arabic; lean bilingual.

### EG

- **Flag:** 🇪🇬
- **Name:** Egypt
- **Trust:** 2
- **Price sensitivity:** 5
- **Brand openness:** 3
### Loves

- Bundle deals & clear value
- Strong social proof
- Visible quality checks
- Hassle-free returns

### Avoid

- GCC/Gulf pricing
- Thin social proof
- Unrealistic claims

- **Note:** Largest, cheapest audience but ultra price-sensitive (a 10–15% price jump loses buyers) and trust-cautious (62% who avoid online cite trust). Social proof is decisive.


## Timing

### Proven

- 
  - **Title:** Block the dead zone
  - **Confidence:** 5
  - **Fact:** In Algeria, accounts routinely burn up to 50% of the daily budget between 03:00–09:00 on bot traffic and accidental clicks.
  - **Strategy:** Dayparting out 01:00–07:00 protects spend.
  - **Why:**
    - **Mechanism:** Prevents ad rendering during peak automated scraper & bot hours when human intent is lowest.
    - **Result:** Reduces wasted ad spend on empty clicks.
    - **Tradeoff:** Throttles early-morning delivery scaling.
    - **Use when:** Operating on tight budgets in Algeria.
  - **Ai tasks:**
    - audit_funnel_spikes
- 
  - **Title:** Don’t pause during the learning phase
  - **Confidence:** 4
  - **Fact:** Meta algorithms warm up costlier placement buckets first, creating temporary high CPC/CPL numbers.
  - **Strategy:** Let campaigns run until they hit ~50 conversions/week before adjusting.
  - **Why:**
    - **Mechanism:** Allows the algorithm to build a steady buyer profile model from actual conversions.
    - **Result:** Avoids resetting the pixel learning phase repeatedly.
    - **Tradeoff:** Requires short-term capital spend absorption.
    - **Use when:** Launching fresh ad sets or creatives.
  - **Ai tasks:**
    - predict_budget_pacing
- 
  - **Title:** Peak intent is late evening
  - **Confidence:** 5
  - **Fact:** Highest purchase intent matches active leisure periods (20:00–23:30) and midday breaks (12:00–14:00).
  - **Strategy:** Focus bid weights and budget allocations on evening windows.
  - **Why:**
    - **Mechanism:** Buyers are relaxed at home on mobile devices, leading to faster checkout form completions.
    - **Result:** Higher landing page conversion rates.
    - **Tradeoff:** CPMs are slightly higher in competitive auctions during these hours.
    - **Use when:** Running impulse or emotional products.
  - **Ai tasks:**
    - generate_video_hooks

### Benchmarks

- 
  - **Title:** Friday is split
  - **Confidence:** 4
  - **Fact:** Engagement drops during Friday prayer (12:00–15:00), then rises rapidly Friday evening.
  - **Strategy:** Reduce bids or pause during prayers, ramp up for evening surfing.
  - **Why:**
    - **Mechanism:** Aligns with religious and cultural offline schedules.
    - **Result:** Protects CPA from midday conversion drops.
    - **Tradeoff:** Requires active day-pacing management.
    - **Use when:** Algerian, Moroccan & Tunisian campaigns.
- 
  - **Title:** Best days
  - **Confidence:** 3
  - **Fact:** Tue–Thu are discovery days; weekend evenings drive impulsive, direct checkouts.
  - **Strategy:** Launch creative tests mid-week; scale budgets on weekends.
  - **Why:**
    - **Mechanism:** Weekly cognitive patterns: mid-week fatigue triggers browsing; weekends trigger action.
    - **Result:** More stable average weekly CPL.
    - **Tradeoff:** Inconsistent daily performance metrics.
    - **Use when:** B2C physical products.

### Test

- 
  - **Title:** Launch time
  - **Confidence:** 2
  - **Fact:** Starting campaigns at 00:00 vs 20:00 affects early pacing allocation.
  - **Strategy:** Test midnight launches against prime evening launches to monitor CPC differences.
  - **Why:**
    - **Mechanism:** Auction pricing refreshes at midnight, resetting delivery throttling pacing.
    - **Result:** Optimized delivery start window.
    - **Tradeoff:** Harder to manually monitor early launch spikes.
    - **Use when:** Testing fresh ad accounts.


## Seasonal

| Event | Cpm | Note |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Ramadan (early) | +40–80% | FMCG awareness budgets flood auctions. Direct-response conversion drops. Shift to post-Iftar nights (20:00–03:00). |
| Last 10 days → Eid al-Fitr | +50–70% | Intent spikes for fashion, kids’ wear, cosmetics, gifts (72% of Moroccans seek new brands). Couriers triple → +1–3 days transit. |
| Eid al-Fitr & post-Eid | — | Online volume collapses, couriers pause 3–5 days. Cut to retargeting. |
| Back-to-School (Aug–Sep) | +25–40% | Kids’ wear, school gear, tech. Prep winter stock in Sept before saturation. |
| White Friday (November) | +60–90% | Yearly CPM peak. Heavy gift-buying volume. |

## Budget

### Proven

- 
  - **Title:** Test with ABO, scale with CBO
  - **Confidence:** 5
  - **Fact:** Ad-Set Budget Optimization keeps budget split even between creatives. CBO consolidates spend on the cheapest creative too quickly.
  - **Strategy:** Run ABO to isolate winners, then move proven creatives to CBO for scaling.
  - **Why:**
    - **Mechanism:** Prevents Meta from bias-allocating budget to a creative with high early CTR but low conversion rates.
    - **Result:** Ensures fair creative split testing.
    - **Tradeoff:** Takes slightly longer to optimize budgets.
    - **Use when:** Running creative variation testing.
  - **Ai tasks:**
    - predict_budget_pacing
- 
  - **Title:** Scale ≤30% per 24h
  - **Confidence:** 5
  - **Fact:** Budget shifts exceeding 30% force Meta to reset delivery models to recalculate auction bids.
  - **Strategy:** Increase budgets in small steps (20-30% daily) or use horizontal duplication.
  - **Why:**
    - **Mechanism:** Keeps the ad set within the same stable audience bid pool.
    - **Result:** Avoids resetting the pixel learning phase.
    - **Tradeoff:** Limits rapid exponential scaling on viral days.
    - **Use when:** Scaling profitable winning campaigns.
  - **Ai tasks:**
    - audit_funnel_spikes

### Benchmarks

- 
  - **Title:** Test budget / product / day
  - **Confidence:** 4
  - **Fact:** North Africa CPM ranges allow validation with relatively small daily spends.
  - **Strategy:** Allocate $7-10/day for DZ, $15-20/day for MA, and $5-8/day for TN/EG for validation.
  - **Why:**
    - **Mechanism:** Buys enough impressions to get statistical significance on CTR and early leads.
    - **Result:** Lowers cost of testing failure.
    - **Tradeoff:** Takes 48-72h to accumulate data.
    - **Use when:** Sourcing new products.

### Test

- 
  - **Title:** Bid cap vs lowest cost
  - **Confidence:** 3
  - **Fact:** Bid caps stop delivery if auctions exceed profitability ceilings, but can starve campaigns of traffic.
  - **Strategy:** Run lowest cost on validation, test bid caps once scaling >$100/day.
  - **Why:**
    - **Mechanism:** Protects margins during high-CPM seasonal periods.
    - **Result:** Capped cost-per-lead limits.
    - **Tradeoff:** Delivery can drop to zero if auction CPMs spike.
    - **Use when:** Scaling viral home gadgets.


## Roas

- **Formula:** Delivered Revenue = Leads × Confirmation% × Delivery% × AOV   |   Real ROAS = Delivered Revenue ÷ Ad Spend
### Example

- Spend 1,000 MAD → 100 leads @ 300 MAD AOV
- Ad Manager shows 30.0× ROAS (fantasy)
- 100 × 70% confirmed = 70 orders
- 70 × 80% delivered = 56 orders
- Real revenue = 56 × 300 = 16,800 MAD
- Real ROAS = 16.8× — plus 14 refusals cost double shipping

- **Fix:** Feed only Confirmed / Delivered events back to Meta & TikTok via server-side Conversions API (CAPI). Training on real buyers (not impulse clickers) cuts cost-per-delivered-order up to 38% and lifts delivery rates over 22%.

## Creative

### Proven

- 
  - **Title:** Hook in 3 seconds
  - **Confidence:** 5
  - **Fact:** Scroll speed is fast; users drop off within 3 seconds if there is no immediate visual transition or pain highlight.
  - **Strategy:** Start with high-energy problem scenes, visual contrast, or local dialect voice hooks.
  - **Why:**
    - **Mechanism:** Triggers a cognitive scroll-stop response.
    - **Result:** Lifts 3s view-through rate (hook rate) above 30%.
    - **Tradeoff:** Harder to construct clean narrative build-ups.
    - **Use when:** All video ads.
  - **Ai tasks:**
    - generate_video_hooks
- 
  - **Title:** Subtitles always
  - **Confidence:** 5
  - **Fact:** Up to 30% of social media users browse platforms with muted sound.
  - **Strategy:** Burn high-contrast Arabic/bilingual subtitles directly into the video.
  - **Why:**
    - **Mechanism:** Maintains message delivery even with muted audio devices.
    - **Result:** Prevents silent watch time lead loss.
    - **Tradeoff:** Slightly obscures bottom-third visual details.
    - **Use when:** UGC / Explainer ads.
  - **Ai tasks:**
    - generate_voiceover

### Benchmarks

- 
  - **Title:** Length 15–30s
  - **Confidence:** 4
  - **Fact:** Video watch retention drops by 60% after the 30-second mark.
  - **Strategy:** Keep prospecting creatives between 15-30s focusing on features + demo.
  - **Why:**
    - **Mechanism:** Matches mobile scrolling attention span limitations.
    - **Result:** Higher video completion rates and CTR.
    - **Tradeoff:** Limits deep product explanations.
    - **Use when:** Cold prospecting.
- 
  - **Title:** Raw UGC > studio
  - **Confidence:** 4
  - **Fact:** Slick commercial ads look like sponsored promotions, raising buyer trust defenses.
  - **Strategy:** Use home-recorded phone style UGC demonstration videos.
  - **Why:**
    - **Mechanism:** Blends into normal social media feeds, lowering defense thresholds.
    - **Result:** Higher CTR and conversion rates.
    - **Tradeoff:** Harder to maintain strict brand guidelines.
    - **Use when:** Trust-sensitive products.
  - **Ai tasks:**
    - ugc_prompts

### Test

- 
  - **Title:** Price in creative
  - **Confidence:** 3
  - **Fact:** Showing price filters out low-intent users, cutting lead volume but raising conversion rate.
  - **Strategy:** A/B test showing price directly in the video hook vs hiding it.
  - **Why:**
    - **Mechanism:** Pre-qualifies buyers before clicking to the landing page.
    - **Result:** Higher confirmation rates on leads.
    - **Tradeoff:** Slightly lowers click-through rates (CTR).
    - **Use when:** Products with higher AOVs.


## Hook library

### Problem

- Still struggling with {problem}?
- If you suffer from {problem}, watch this before you buy anything else.
- Tired of {problem} every single day?
- {problem} is ruining your {context} — here’s the fix.

### Shock

- I didn’t believe this actually worked… until I tried it.
- I can’t believe this is legal in {country}.
- Stop wasting money on {old_solution}. Watch this.
- This is why your {old_solution} never worked.

### Authority

- Doctors don’t tell you this about {problem}.
- After 10 years as a {expert}, this is the only {category} I recommend.
- Professionals use this — now you can too.

### POV

- POV: your wife just discovered {product}.
- POV: you finally fixed {problem} for {price}.
- POV: the whole family fights over {product}.

### Comparison

- I replaced my {old_solution} with this — here’s what happened.
- {expensive_option} vs {product}: same result, fraction of the price.
- Why pay {high_price} when this does the same?

### Curiosity

- Nobody in {country} knows this trick yet.
- The {category} secret stores don’t want you to find.
- This tiny thing changed my {context} completely.

### Transformation

- From {before_state} to {after_state} in {timeframe}.
- Watch what {timeframe} of {product} did.
- Before / After — no filters, real result.

### Social Proof

- Over {count} families in {country} already use this.
- The reviews on this are insane — see for yourself.
- Sold out 3 times this month. Here’s why.

### Urgency / Scarcity

- Last batch before prices go up.
- Only {count} left at this price.
- This deal ends with this stock.

### Question

- Ever wondered why {audience} keep buying {product}?
- What if {problem} disappeared in {timeframe}?
- Did you know {surprising_fact}?

### Story

- My {relative} couldn’t {do_thing}… until this.
- I almost gave up on {goal} — then I found this.

### Direct Offer

- {product} — cash on delivery, pay when it arrives.
- Order now, pay at your door. Nothing upfront.


## Formula library

- 
  - **Name:** PASO
  - **Steps:**
    - Problem (hook)
    - Agitate
    - Solution (show product)
    - Offer + CTA
- 
  - **Name:** Demo-First
  - **Steps:**
    - Problem
    - Demonstration
    - Reaction
    - Offer
    - CTA
- 
  - **Name:** POV Story
  - **Steps:**
    - POV hook
    - Problem
    - Micro-story
    - Proof
    - Offer
    - CTA
- 
  - **Name:** Q&A
  - **Steps:**
    - Question
    - Answer
    - Demo
    - Price
    - CTA
- 
  - **Name:** Before/After
  - **Steps:**
    - Show the problem state
    - Apply product
    - Reveal result
    - CTA
- 
  - **Name:** Comparison
  - **Steps:**
    - Old way fails
    - New way works
    - Side-by-side
    - Offer
    - CTA
- 
  - **Name:** Testimonial
  - **Steps:**
    - Real person hook
    - Their problem
    - Their result
    - Recommendation
    - CTA
- 
  - **Name:** Unboxing
  - **Steps:**
    - Arrival / package
    - First impression
    - Use it live
    - Verdict
    - CTA
- 
  - **Name:** Listicle
  - **Steps:**
    - “3 reasons…” hook
    - Reason 1
    - Reason 2
    - Reason 3
    - CTA
- 
  - **Name:** Founder Pitch
  - **Steps:**
    - Why I made this
    - The problem it solves
    - Demo
    - Guarantee
    - CTA

## Archetypes

| Name | Icon | Examples | Angle | Demo |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Transformation | ⚖️ | Weight loss, hair, skin | Before/after, timeframe proof | High |
| Convenience | 🍳 | Kitchen & home gadgets | Time/effort saved, demo-first | High |
| Protection | 🛡️ | Car & phone accessories | Fear of loss/damage | Medium |
| Luxury Feeling | ⌚ | Watches, jewelry, bags | Status, aesthetics, gifting | Medium |
| Beauty | 💄 | Cleansers, cosmetics | Sensory close-ups, results | High |
| Health | 🧘 | Posture, joint, supplements | Pain relief, authority | Medium |
| Cleaning | 🧽 | Home cleaning tools | Satisfying before/after | High |
| Kids / Parenting | 🧸 | Toys, safety, learning | Parent emotion, safety | Medium |
| Pets | 🐾 | Pet care & toys | Cuteness + problem-solving | High |

## Validation dimensions

| Key | Label | Direction | Help |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| visual_hook | Visual Hook | positive | How instantly arresting is it on a feed? |
| problem_severity | Problem Severity | positive | How painful is the problem it solves? |
| novelty | Novelty | positive | How fresh / “never seen” is it? |
| margin | Margin | positive | Gross margin headroom (≥60% scores high). |
| demonstration | Demonstration Potential | positive | How well does it demo on video? |
| shipping_complexity | Shipping Complexity | negative | Weight/size/cost burden (higher = worse). |
| fragility | Fragility | negative | Breakage risk in rough transit (higher = worse). |
| saturation | Market Saturation | negative | How many competitors already run it (higher = worse). |
| local_availability | Local Availability | negative | Findable in local markets / wholesale (higher = worse). |
| seasonality_risk | Seasonality Risk | negative | How narrow is its selling window (higher = worse). |

## Validation bands

| Min | Label | Tone | Action |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 80 | Strong winner | emerald | Greenlight. Scale aggressively with fresh creative. |
| 60 | Viable | lime | Test carefully. Winnable with strong creative + tight ops. |
| 40 | Risky | amber | Only with exceptional creative or a unique angle. |
| 0 | Avoid | rose | The numbers fight you. Skip unless you can fix the weak dimensions. |

## Product rules

### Proven

- 
  - **Title:** Fat margin absorbs refusals
  - **Confidence:** 5
  - **Fact:** North Africa shipping returns (RTO) run 15–30% structurally due to cash delays and courier failures.
  - **Strategy:** Prioritize products with ≥60% gross margin.
  - **Why:**
    - **Mechanism:** Absorbs double courier fees (shipping + return fee) on the ~25% of orders that fail delivery.
    - **Result:** Maintains net profitability even with a 30% return rate.
    - **Tradeoff:** Limits options to high-markup items.
    - **Use when:** Always in cash-on-delivery models.
  - **Ai tasks:**
    - audit_funnel_spikes
- 
  - **Title:** Local sourcing beats AliExpress
  - **Confidence:** 5
  - **Fact:** AliExpress/China dropshipping transit is 30–45 days; buyer intent cools completely after 5 days.
  - **Strategy:** Source stock locally from national wholesale hubs for 2–4 day delivery.
  - **Why:**
    - **Mechanism:** Capitalizes on prime buyer intent speed.
    - **Result:** Reduces RTO rates from >50% to under 20%.
    - **Tradeoff:** Requires upfront capital for wholesale MOQ lots.
    - **Use when:** Validating a scalable winner.

### Benchmarks

- 
  - **Title:** Price sweet spot
  - **Confidence:** 4
  - **Fact:** Buyers hesitate on COD purchases above specific threshold numbers without physical inspection.
  - **Strategy:** Keep prices within MA 100–500 MAD, DZ 1,500–3,000 DZD, and TN 30–80 TND.
  - **Why:**
    - **Mechanism:** Matches average physical cash pockets kept in households.
    - **Result:** Avoids cart abandonment on high pricing.
    - **Tradeoff:** Limits unit revenue potential.
    - **Use when:** Targeting mass markets.
- 
  - **Title:** Weight under 2 kg
  - **Confidence:** 4
  - **Fact:** Couriers double province rates once parcel weights exceed 2kg.
  - **Strategy:** Filter product selections to items below 2kg.
  - **Why:**
    - **Mechanism:** Avoids shipping pricing penalties on heavy goods.
    - **Result:** Increases net margins on interior deliveries.
    - **Tradeoff:** Excludes large home items or heavy liquids.
    - **Use when:** Standard shipping setups.

### Test

- 
  - **Title:** Problem-solver vs impulse
  - **Confidence:** 3
  - **Fact:** Impulse buys get high CTR but high RTO; problem-solvers get lower CTR but higher confirmation.
  - **Strategy:** A/B test advertising structure based on product category.
  - **Why:**
    - **Mechanism:** Aligns audience intent hooks with product realities.
    - **Result:** Optimized CPA per segment.
    - **Tradeoff:** Requires different video production models.
    - **Use when:** Launching new product sets.


## Anti patterns

| Title | Mistake | Why |
| --- | --- | --- |
| AliExpress Dropshipping Sourcing | Sourcing items directly from China for shipping to Maghreb customers. | Transit times exceed 30 days. Customers forget the order, buy an alternative locally, or refuse to pay because of buyer remorse. RTO rates will spike past 50%. |
| French-Only Ads in Algeria | Using standard European French ad copy & video voiceovers. | While French is understood, it sounds like an external corporate brand. Algerian buyers respond best to local Darija. French copy filters out mass-market consumers. |
| 90-Second Product Ads | Relying on long, television-style infomercial scripts. | Mobile scroll attention spans are under 3 seconds. The dropoff is severe. Ads exceeding 30s waste budget on viewers who already lost interest. |
| Stock White-Background Images | Using manufacturer white-background catalog shots on social feeds. | Looks like an ad. People scroll past it. Real, slightly raw smartphone demonstrations (UGC) generate 3x more clicks and traffic. |
| Forcing Email Checkout Fields | Making email address a required checkout field on landing pages. | Maghreb buyers rarely use email for e-commerce. Forcing email requirements results in up to 50% form abandonment. Only ask for Name, Phone, and Address/Landmark. |
| Card-first Checkout Systems | Implementing card-first checkouts in countries with low card penetration. | Over 95% of consumers in the Maghreb pay with cash on delivery. Card requirements cause immediate bounce rates. COD forms must be front and center. |

## Product database

- 
  - **Name:** Foaming Soap Tablets
  - **Category:** Cleaning / Home care
  - **Expected lifecycle:** 6 weeks
  - **Metrics:**
    - **Visual hook:** 10
    - **Problem severity:** 8
    - **Novelty:** 7
    - **Margin:** 9
    - **Weight:** 10
    - **Fragility:** 10
    - **Saturation:** 6
  - **Countries:**
    - **DZ:** 5
    - **MA:** 4
    - **TN:** 4
    - **EG:** 4
  - **Recommended angles:**
    - Cleaning efficiency
    - Eco-friendly/Zero-waste
    - Kids handwashing fun
    - Travel-friendly size
  - **Top hooks:**
    - Still buying plastic soap bottles that are 90% water?
    - This tiny tablet makes 500ml of foaming soap in 2 minutes.
  - **Ai tasks:**
    - generate_video_hooks
    - generate_landing_page
    - ugc_prompts
- 
  - **Name:** Intelligent Neck Massager
  - **Category:** Health & Wellness
  - **Expected lifecycle:** 4–8 weeks
  - **Metrics:**
    - **Visual hook:** 9
    - **Problem severity:** 9
    - **Novelty:** 6
    - **Margin:** 8
    - **Weight:** 9
    - **Fragility:** 8
    - **Saturation:** 9
  - **Countries:**
    - **DZ:** 4
    - **MA:** 5
    - **TN:** 4
    - **EG:** 3
  - **Recommended angles:**
    - Office neck pain relief
    - Headache prevention
    - Relaxation after long shifts
  - **Top hooks:**
    - If you sit at a desk all day, watch what this massager does in 10 minutes.
    - My neck pain was ruining my sleep... until I found this.
  - **Ai tasks:**
    - generate_video_hooks
    - generate_voiceover
    - generate_landing_page
- 
  - **Name:** Professional Hair Trimmer
  - **Category:** Personal Care / Grooming
  - **Expected lifecycle:** 8–12 weeks
  - **Metrics:**
    - **Visual hook:** 8
    - **Problem severity:** 7
    - **Novelty:** 5
    - **Margin:** 8
    - **Weight:** 8
    - **Fragility:** 9
    - **Saturation:** 9
  - **Countries:**
    - **DZ:** 5
    - **MA:** 4
    - **TN:** 4
    - **EG:** 5
  - **Recommended angles:**
    - Barber-grade trim at home
    - Saves money on weekly cuts
    - Travel-friendly grooming
  - **Top hooks:**
    - Stop paying weekly barber fees. Do it yourself in 5 minutes.
    - The sharpest trimmer on the market — zero irritation.
  - **Ai tasks:**
    - generate_landing_page
    - ugc_prompts

## Failure

| Title | Body |
| --- | --- |
| AliExpress shipping (30–45 days) | Buyers expect 2–5 days. Long transit → forgotten orders, local alternatives, remorse. RTO >50%. Source locally. |
| Pixel optimised for web checkouts | A web checkout is just a lead. Browser-pixel optimisation trains Meta on your failed deliveries. Send Confirmed/Delivered via CAPI. |
| The working-capital gap | Couriers remit on J+3 to J+14. 100 orders/day × 300 MAD × 15 days ≈ $45k locked in transit. Keep a 2–3 week cash reserve. |
| Truecaller spam-flagging | Manual confirmation numbers get flagged → red call screen → answer rates collapse. Use Truecaller’s verified business program. |
| Multi-step checkout | Card-first checkouts hit ~75% abandonment. One-page form (name, phone, wilaya/commune, landmark). Extra fields drop conversion ~50%. |
| Copycat saturation | Viral hits last 4–8 weeks before being cloned and undercut. Rotate products and refresh creative constantly. |
| Scaling on “book sales” | Scaling on dashboard conversions, not delivered orders, drains margin via return shipping (~30–40% of the delivery fee per RTO). |
| Solo past 30–50 orders/day | A solo operator can’t keep up with confirmation calls + dispatch + CS. Confirmation lags, RTO rises. Hire a confirmation agent first. |

## Death signals

| Signal | Meaning |
| --- | --- |
| CTR trending down | Creative fatigue or audience saturation |
| Comments: “I bought this elsewhere / cheaper” | Commoditised — price war incoming |
| 20+ competitors running active ads | Market saturated |
| CPM & CPC rising | Auction competition up |
| Frequency climbing | Burning the same audience |
| Confirmation rate dropping | Lead quality decaying / wrong audience |
| Delivery rate dropping | Buyers cooling / copycats undercutting in transit |
| Net profit shrinking despite stable spend | The product is dying — rotate |

## Fatigue ladder

| Phase | Title | Action |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | New product | One strong creative to validate demand |
| 2 | Early traction | Three creatives, same angle, different hooks |
| 3 | Scaling | Ten creatives in rotation to fight frequency |
| 4 | Fatigue | New angles (different problem/benefit) |
| 5 | Deep fatigue | New avatar / spokesperson / format |
| 6 | Exhausted | Rotate to the next product |

## Funnel

| Stage | Kpi | Target | Leak | Fix |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Impression | CPM in benchmark | see country table | Wrong audience / season spike | Broaden audience, avoid peak-CPM windows |
| Hook (3s) | Hook rate / 3s views | ≥30% | Weak first 3 seconds | New hook from the angle library |
| Video watch | Hold rate | ~35% | Slow middle, no payoff | Tighten edit, demo earlier |
| Click | CTR | ≥2% | Hook ≠ offer, no CTA | Align creative promise with CTA |
| Landing page | LP conversion | 8% (range 1–2.5% for cold) | Slow load, long form, no trust | One-page form, speed, local currency, trust badges |
| Lead | CPL in benchmark | see country table | Fake / duplicate orders | Phone validation (E.164), risk scoring |
| Confirmation | Confirmation rate | 65–80% | Slow callback, spam-flagged number | Call within 2h, verified business caller ID, WhatsApp |
| Shipping | Dispatch accuracy | — | Manual entry typos | Courier API sync, no copy-paste |
| Delivery | Delivery success | 70–90% | Slow transit, missing landmark | Stop-Desk option, landmark accentuation, WhatsApp updates |
| Repeat | Repeat rate / LTV | — | No post-purchase follow-up | WhatsApp re-engagement, bundle next purchase |

## Kpis

| Metric | Target |
| --- | --- |
| Hook rate (3s) | ≥30% |
| CTR | ≥2% |
| Video hold | ~35% |
| Landing conversion | 8% warm · 1–2.5% cold |
| Confirmation rate | 65–80% |
| Delivery success | 70–90% |
| Verified RTO | <20% |
| Net margin | 20–30% |

## Decision trees

- 
  - **Symptom:** CPL too high / unprofitable
  - **Steps:**
| Check | Then |
| --- | --- |
| Hook rate < 30% or CTR < 2%? | Creative problem → new hook & angle (see angle library). Don’t touch the rest yet. |
| Creative healthy but landing conversion < 6%? | Landing page → page speed, one-page form, local currency, trust badges. |
| Landing fine but confirmation < 65%? | Ops → call within 2h, verified caller ID, WhatsApp fallback. |
| Confirmation fine but delivery < 70%? | Logistics → Stop-Desk option, landmark capture, switch courier per wilaya. |
| All healthy but still unprofitable? | Margin/price → raise price, bundle to lift AOV, or drop the product. |
- 
  - **Symptom:** Was winning, now declining
  - **Steps:**
| Check | Then |
| --- | --- |
| Frequency rising + CTR falling? | Creative fatigue → climb the fatigue ladder (new creatives → angles → avatar). |
| 20+ competitors / “cheaper elsewhere” comments? | Saturation → differentiate, bundle, or rotate to next product. |
| Delivery/confirmation dropping? | Lead quality or copycats undercutting in transit → tighten audience, add WhatsApp engagement. |
- 
  - **Symptom:** High refusal rate (RTO)
  - **Steps:**
| Check | Then |
| --- | --- |
| Calling buyers within 2 hours? | No → speed up confirmation; response drops ~40% after 24h. |
| Capturing a landmark on the form? | No → add it; missing landmarks fail ~20% of first attempts. |
| Shipping unconfirmed orders? | Stop → never dispatch before verification. |
| Specific wilayas/regions worse? | Route those to Stop-Desk pickup or a different courier. |

## Confirmation

### Proven

- 
  - **Title:** Never ship unconfirmed
  - **Confidence:** 5
  - **Fact:** Unverified checkouts are full of fake numbers, duplicates and wrong addresses.
  - **Strategy:** Verify order via call or message before dispatch.
  - **Why:**
    - **Mechanism:** Filters out high-risk automated spam and low-intent clickers.
    - **Result:** Avoids paying return shipping fees on undeliverable parcels.
    - **Tradeoff:** Delays immediate order fulfillment timelines.
    - **Use when:** Always.
- 
  - **Title:** Capture a landmark
  - **Confidence:** 4
  - **Fact:** North Africa maps are unindexed; couriers require physical landmarks to find buyer homes.
  - **Strategy:** Make Landmark a mandatory field on your checkout page.
  - **Why:**
    - **Mechanism:** Gives courier drivers exact orientation coordinates.
    - **Result:** Lifts first-attempt delivery rates by 20%.
    - **Tradeoff:** Adds slight form friction for buyers.
    - **Use when:** Shipping directly to customers.

### Benchmarks

- 
  - **Title:** Call within 30 min – 2 h
  - **Confidence:** 4
  - **Fact:** Response rates drop by 40% after 24h as buyer excitement fades.
  - **Strategy:** Call back within 2h of checkout form submission.
  - **Why:**
    - **Mechanism:** Leverages warm purchase intent triggers.
    - **Result:** Higher confirmation rates.
    - **Tradeoff:** Requires dedicated agents on call.

### Test

- 
  - **Title:** Script wording
  - **Confidence:** 3
  - **Fact:** Language choice (Darija vs French vs Fus-ha) affects conversational trust.
  - **Strategy:** A/B test local dialect scripts against standard Arabic.
  - **Why:**
    - **Mechanism:** Aligns tone with buyer cultural expectations.
    - **Result:** Lower direct refusal rates.
    - **Tradeoff:** Requires higher-skilled dialect agents.


## Logistics

### Notes

| Title | Body |
| --- | --- |
| Push Stop-Desk pickup | 100–200 DZD cheaper and +5–10 points delivery success — buyers who travel to collect are committed. |
| Urban vs rural gap | Coastal: 1–2 days. Interior/south: 3–10 days (Procolis). Rural cost can hit $5–10/parcel vs $1.50–2.50 urban. |
| WhatsApp keeps buyers warm | 85–92% open rates. “Shipped / out for delivery” notifications cut refusals. |
| Offer “open on delivery” | Inspect-before-pay is a powerful trust signal — highlight it. |

### Couriers dz

| Name | Algiers | Stopdesk | Province | Strength |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Yalidine | 400–500 DZD | 300–400 DZD | 500–700 DZD | Dominant coverage, all 58 wilayas, platform APIs |
| ZR Express | 400–600 DZD | 300–450 DZD | 500–750 DZD | Rapid urban fulfillment (Algiers/Oran/Constantine) |
| Maystro | 400–500 DZD | 300–400 DZD | 500–700 DZD | Enterprise dashboards & 3PL warehousing |
| Procolis | 450–600 DZD | 350–450 DZD | 550–800 DZD | Specialized southern / desert coverage |
| Algérie Poste | 150–250 DZD | 200–350 DZD | Cheap national | Universal but slow, no API |


## Machine rules

### Product

- **Ideal weight max kg:** 2
- **Gross margin target pct:** 60
- **Shipping days ideal:** 1-3
### Price sweet spot

- **DZ:** 1500-3000 DZD
- **MA:** 100-500 MAD
- **TN:** 30-80 TND
- **EG:** low / volume

- **Impulse ceiling dz dzd:** 6000

### Creative

- **Hook time max s:** 3
- **Video length s:** 15-30
- **Subtitles required:** yes
- **Angles per product:** 5-10
### Dialect

- **DZ:** Darija
- **MA:** Darija
- **TN:** Ar+Fr
- **EG:** Egyptian Arabic


### Budget

- **Scale step max pct 24h:** 30
- **Cbo promote after conversions week:** 50
- **Asc min conversions week:** 50
- **Dayparting block:** 01:00-07:00
- **Launch time default:** 00:00-01:00

### Confirmation

- **First call within:** 30min-2h
- **Response drop after:** 24h
- **Confirmation rate target pct:** 65-80
- **Max attempts:** 5

### Landing page

- **Max form fields:** 4
### Required fields

- name
- phone
- wilaya/commune
- landmark

- **Local currency required:** yes
- **Rtl required:** yes

### Kpi targets

- **Hook rate pct:** 30
- **Ctr pct:** 2
- **Lp conversion pct:** 8
- **Confirmation pct:** 65-80
- **Delivery pct:** 70-90
- **Verified rto pct max:** 20
- **Net margin pct:** 20-30

### Attribution

- **Optimize event:** Delivered (via CAPI), not web Purchase
- **Capi cpa reduction pct:** 38
- **Capi delivery lift pct:** 22