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COD Operating Manual Category Hub and Diagnostic Playbooks

Cash on delivery optimization system. Category guidelines for media buyers: ad timings, scaling caps, validation formulas, and Anti-Patterns.

Category Manual

Media Buying & Scaling

Budget allocations, optimal ad timings, dayparting, and ROAS calculations.

⏰ Ad Timing & Dayparting

Proven Rules Apply by default

Block the dead zone

Confidence: ★★★★★
Fact

In Algeria, accounts routinely burn up to 50% of the daily budget between 03:00–09:00 on bot traffic and accidental clicks.

Strategy

Dayparting out 01:00–07:00 protects spend.

💡 Explanations & Mechanisms
Mechanism: Prevents ad rendering during peak automated scraper & bot hours when human intent is lowest.
Result: Reduces wasted ad spend on empty clicks.
Tradeoff: Throttles early-morning delivery scaling.
Use When: Operating on tight budgets in Algeria.
🤖 AI Agent Tasks
  • audit_funnel_spikes

Don’t pause during the learning phase

Confidence: ★★★★
Fact

Meta algorithms warm up costlier placement buckets first, creating temporary high CPC/CPL numbers.

Strategy

Let campaigns run until they hit ~50 conversions/week before adjusting.

💡 Explanations & Mechanisms
Mechanism: Allows the algorithm to build a steady buyer profile model from actual conversions.
Result: Avoids resetting the pixel learning phase repeatedly.
Tradeoff: Requires short-term capital spend absorption.
Use When: Launching fresh ad sets or creatives.
🤖 AI Agent Tasks
  • predict_budget_pacing

Peak intent is late evening

Confidence: ★★★★★
Fact

Highest purchase intent matches active leisure periods (20:00–23:30) and midday breaks (12:00–14:00).

Strategy

Focus bid weights and budget allocations on evening windows.

💡 Explanations & Mechanisms
Mechanism: Buyers are relaxed at home on mobile devices, leading to faster checkout form completions.
Result: Higher landing page conversion rates.
Tradeoff: CPMs are slightly higher in competitive auctions during these hours.
Use When: Running impulse or emotional products.
🤖 AI Agent Tasks
  • generate_video_hooks
Typical Benchmarks Directional — varies by account & season

Friday is split

Confidence: ★★★★
Fact

Engagement drops during Friday prayer (12:00–15:00), then rises rapidly Friday evening.

Strategy

Reduce bids or pause during prayers, ramp up for evening surfing.

💡 Explanations & Mechanisms
Mechanism: Aligns with religious and cultural offline schedules.
Result: Protects CPA from midday conversion drops.
Tradeoff: Requires active day-pacing management.
Use When: Algerian, Moroccan & Tunisian campaigns.

Best days

Confidence: ★★★★★
Fact

Tue–Thu are discovery days; weekend evenings drive impulsive, direct checkouts.

Strategy

Launch creative tests mid-week; scale budgets on weekends.

💡 Explanations & Mechanisms
Mechanism: Weekly cognitive patterns: mid-week fatigue triggers browsing; weekends trigger action.
Result: More stable average weekly CPL.
Tradeoff: Inconsistent daily performance metrics.
Use When: B2C physical products.
Test Yourself No universal answer — A/B test per product

Launch time

Confidence: ★★★★★
Fact

Starting campaigns at 00:00 vs 20:00 affects early pacing allocation.

Strategy

Test midnight launches against prime evening launches to monitor CPC differences.

💡 Explanations & Mechanisms
Mechanism: Auction pricing refreshes at midnight, resetting delivery throttling pacing.
Result: Optimized delivery start window.
Tradeoff: Harder to manually monitor early launch spikes.
Use When: Testing fresh ad accounts.

💰 Budget Allocations & Scaling

Proven Rules Apply by default

Test with ABO, scale with CBO

Confidence: ★★★★★
Fact

Ad-Set Budget Optimization keeps budget split even between creatives. CBO consolidates spend on the cheapest creative too quickly.

Strategy

Run ABO to isolate winners, then move proven creatives to CBO for scaling.

💡 Explanations & Mechanisms
Mechanism: Prevents Meta from bias-allocating budget to a creative with high early CTR but low conversion rates.
Result: Ensures fair creative split testing.
Tradeoff: Takes slightly longer to optimize budgets.
Use When: Running creative variation testing.
🤖 AI Agent Tasks
  • predict_budget_pacing

Scale ≤30% per 24h

Confidence: ★★★★★
Fact

Budget shifts exceeding 30% force Meta to reset delivery models to recalculate auction bids.

Strategy

Increase budgets in small steps (20-30% daily) or use horizontal duplication.

💡 Explanations & Mechanisms
Mechanism: Keeps the ad set within the same stable audience bid pool.
Result: Avoids resetting the pixel learning phase.
Tradeoff: Limits rapid exponential scaling on viral days.
Use When: Scaling profitable winning campaigns.
🤖 AI Agent Tasks
  • audit_funnel_spikes
Typical Benchmarks Directional — varies by account & season

Test budget / product / day

Confidence: ★★★★
Fact

North Africa CPM ranges allow validation with relatively small daily spends.

Strategy

Allocate $7-10/day for DZ, $15-20/day for MA, and $5-8/day for TN/EG for validation.

💡 Explanations & Mechanisms
Mechanism: Buys enough impressions to get statistical significance on CTR and early leads.
Result: Lowers cost of testing failure.
Tradeoff: Takes 48-72h to accumulate data.
Use When: Sourcing new products.
Test Yourself No universal answer — A/B test per product

Bid cap vs lowest cost

Confidence: ★★★★★
Fact

Bid caps stop delivery if auctions exceed profitability ceilings, but can starve campaigns of traffic.

Strategy

Run lowest cost on validation, test bid caps once scaling >$100/day.

💡 Explanations & Mechanisms
Mechanism: Protects margins during high-CPM seasonal periods.
Result: Capped cost-per-lead limits.
Tradeoff: Delivery can drop to zero if auction CPMs spike.
Use When: Scaling viral home gadgets.

🧮 Cash-on-Delivery ROAS Math

Formula

Delivered Revenue = Leads × Confirmation% × Delivery% × AOV | Real ROAS = Delivered Revenue ÷ Ad Spend

Worked Case Case Study

▶ Spend 1,000 MAD → 100 leads @ 300 MAD AOV

▶ Ad Manager shows 30.0× ROAS (fantasy)

▶ 100 × 70% confirmed = 70 orders

▶ 70 × 80% delivered = 56 orders

▶ Real revenue = 56 × 300 = 16,800 MAD

▶ Real ROAS = 16.8× — plus 14 refusals cost double shipping

💡 Strategic Correction: Feed only Confirmed / Delivered events back to Meta & TikTok via server-side Conversions API (CAPI). Training on real buyers (not impulse clickers) cuts cost-per-delivered-order up to 38% and lifts delivery rates over 22%.

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